EXPORT CONCENTRATION AND COMPETITIVENESS ACROSS INDIAN STATES

Abstract

This paper examines the regional distribution, concentration, and determinants of merchandise exports across Indian states using comparative data for FY 2023-24 and provisional estimates for FY 2024-25, drawing on secondary sources including the Reserve Bank of India Handbook of Statistics, Ministry of Commerce databases, and state-level investment statistics. The analysis confirms a high degree of export concentration, with a small group of leading states particularly Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu consistently accounting for a dominant share of India’s total merchandise exports, though recent evidence indicates gradual geographic rebalancing as southern states strengthen their export positions. Comparative tables incorporating export values, shares, growth trends, and foreign direct investment inflows reveal that while export rankings remain structurally stable in the short run, investment inflows and sectoral dynamics show considerable variation across states. Correlation analysis further indicates that traditional structural determinants such as FDI inflows, logistics performance, and port proximity strongly explained interstate export variation in FY 2023-24, whereas provisional FY 2024-25 results suggest weakening short-term relationships, implying a transitional phase influenced by sectoral cycles, policy shifts, and changing trade demand. Overall, the findings demonstrate that state-level export competitiveness is shaped by a combination of industrial specialization, infrastructure accessibility, investment patterns, and cluster development, and that improvements in logistics and diversification may gradually reduce geographic disparities. By integrating multi-year comparative evidence, the study provides a nuanced understanding of India’s evolving subnational export landscape and offers policy-relevant insights for promoting balanced export growth across both leading and emerging states.